Confronting cosmic shear astrophysical uncertainties: DES Year 3 revisited

Abstract

Cosmology from weak gravitational lensing has been limited by astrophysical uncertainties in baryonic feedback and intrinsic alignments. By calibrating these effects using external data, we recover non-linear information, achieving a 2% constraint on the clustering amplitude, $S_8$, resulting in a factor of two improvement on the $\Lambda$CDM constraints relative to the fiducial Dark Energy Survey Year 3 model. The posterior, $S_8=0.832^{+0.013}_{-0.017}$, shifts by $1.5\sigma$ to higher values, in closer agreement with the cosmic microwave background result for the standard six-parameter $\Lambda$CDM cosmology. Our approach uses a star-forming 'blue' galaxy sample with intrinsic alignment model parameters calibrated by direct spectroscopic measurements, together with a baryonic feedback model informed by observations of X-ray gas fractions and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect profiles that span a wide range in halo mass and redshift. Our results provide a blueprint for next-generation surveys: leveraging galaxy properties to control intrinsic alignments and external gas probes to calibrate feedback, unlocking a substantial improvement in the precision of weak lensing surveys.