SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2512.04593

From Source Properties to Strong-Field Tests: a multipronged analysis of GW250114 with an effective one-body model for generic orbits

Abstract

We present a detailed analysis of GW250114, the loudest gravitational-wave signal observed to date, using a waveform model capable of describing binary black holes in generic (eccentric and precessing) orbits. Our analysis builds on LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK)'s results, finding that the source is consistent at a probability of $\geq 96\%$ with the merger of two first-generation, nearly equal-mass, low-spin black holes, forming a remnant within the pair-instability mass gap. The signal's high signal-to-noise ratio ($\gtrsim 75$) enables the detection of the subdominant $(4,\pm4)$ multipoles, whose presence we confirm with higher evidence than previously reported by the LVK. Restricting the analysis even to post-peak data yields $\log_{10}B\gtrsim 1$ in favor of models including the $(4,\pm4)$ mode, demonstrating that this contribution remains detectable well into the post-merger phase. We further perform three independent tests of general relativity, complementary to those performed by the LVK: a modified residual analysis confirms that our semi-analytical model fully describes the signal without detectable discrepancies; a subdominant mode test finds that the amplitude of the $(4,\pm4)$ multipoles agrees with general-relativistic expectations; and a parameterised analysis of the plunge-merger-ringdown regime recovers the GR expectation within the 50\% credible region for the remnant mass and spin, and within the 90\% interval for the $(2,\pm2)$ peak amplitude. Collectively, these results reinforce GW250114 as a landmark event for a precision test of gravity.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Koustav Chandra, Rossella Gamba, Danilo Chiaramello. 2025-12-04. From Source Properties to Strong-Field Tests: a multipronged analysis of GW250114 with an effective one-body model for generic orbits. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.04593

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc