Extending Integrated Assessment Model scenarios until 2150 using an emulation Framework

Weiwei Xiong; Katsumasa Tanaka

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arXiv · 2512.06026

Extending Integrated Assessment Model scenarios until 2150 using an emulation Framework

Weiwei Xiong·Katsumasa Tanaka

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Abstract

Whereas there is growing interest in exploring longer-term climate with overshoot, including tipping elements, beyond 2100, most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) generate emissions scenarios only till 2100. Here we propose a framework to extend scenarios until 2150 using an emulator of IAMs. Our framework offers a potential interim solution for developing very long-term scenarios, such as the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), circumventing the challenges of fully simulating IAMs beyond 2100.

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Weiwei Xiong, Katsumasa Tanaka. 2025-12-04. Extending Integrated Assessment Model scenarios until 2150 using an emulation Framework. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.06026

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