A Prescriptive Framework for Determining Optimal Days for Short-Term Traffic Counts

Arthur Mukwaya; Nancy Kasamala; Nana Kankam Gyimah; Judith Mwakalonge; Gurcan Comert; Saidi Siuhi; Denis Ruganuza; Mark Ngotonie

arXiv · 2512.06111

A Prescriptive Framework for Determining Optimal Days for Short-Term Traffic Counts

Arthur Mukwaya·Nancy Kasamala·Nana Kankam Gyimah·Judith Mwakalonge·Gurcan Comert·Saidi Siuhi·Denis Ruganuza·Mark Ngotonie

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Abstract

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) mandates that state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) collect reliable Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) data. However, many U.S. DOTs struggle to obtain accurate AADT, especially for unmonitored roads. While continuous count (CC) stations offer accurate traffic volume data, their implementation is expensive and difficult to deploy widely, compelling agencies to rely on short-duration traffic counts. This study proposes a machine learning framework, the first to our knowledge, to identify optimal representative days for conducting short count (SC) data collection to improve AADT prediction accuracy. Using 2022 and 2023 traffic volume data from the state of Texas, we compare two scenarios: an 'optimal day' approach that iteratively selects the most informative days for AADT estimation and a 'no optimal day' baseline reflecting current practice by most DOTs. To align with Texas DOT's traffic monitoring program, continuous count data were utilized to simulate the 24 hour short counts. The actual field short counts were used to enhance feature engineering through using a leave-one-out (LOO) technique to generate unbiased representative daily traffic features across similar road segments. Our proposed methodology outperforms the baseline across the top five days, with the best day (Day 186) achieving lower errors (RMSE: 7,871.15, MAE: 3,645.09, MAPE: 11.95%) and higher R^2 (0.9756) than the baseline (RMSE: 11,185.00, MAE: 5,118.57, MAPE: 14.42%, R^2: 0.9499). This research offers DOTs an alternative to conventional short-duration count practices, improving AADT estimation, supporting Highway Performance Monitoring System compliance, and reducing the operational costs of statewide traffic data collection.

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Arthur Mukwaya, Nancy Kasamala, Nana Kankam Gyimah, Judith Mwakalonge, Gurcan Comert, Saidi Siuhi, Denis Ruganuza, Mark Ngotonie. 2025-12-05. A Prescriptive Framework for Determining Optimal Days for Short-Term Traffic Counts. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.06111

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