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arXiv · 2512.09978

Gravitational-wave parameter estimation to the Moon and back: massive binaries and the case of GW231123

Francesco Iacovelli·Jacopo Tissino·Jan Harms·Emanuele Berti
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Abstract

We study the prospects of the Lunar Gravitational-Wave Antenna (LGWA), a proposed deci-Hz GW detector, to observe binary black holes (BBHs) and enable multiband science with ground-based detectors. We assess the detectability of the events observed by current instruments up to the GWTC-4.0 data release, and of simulated populations consistent with the latest reconstruction by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration. We find that LGWA alone would have been able to observe more than one third of the events detected so far, and that it could detect $\sim\!90$ events merging in the ground-based band per year out to redshifts $z\sim3-5$. Current detectors at design sensitivity and 100% duty cycle could detect thousands of BBHs per year, with one to a few hundred multiband counterparts in LGWA. Third-generation (3G) detectors can observe most of the BBHs detected by LGWA merging in their frequency band in the simulated mass range $7\,{\rm M}_\odot\lesssim M_{\rm tot}\lesssim 600\,{\rm M}_\odot$, enabling systematic joint analyses of hundreds of events. The short time to merger from the deci-Hz band to the Hz-kHz band (typically months to a year) allows for early warning, targeted follow-up, and archival searches. Multiband observations of intermediate-mass BBHs in the deci-Hz band are particularly promising. We perform an injection study for a GW231123-like system (the most massive BBH detection to date, which accumulates $\sim 10^5$ inspiral cycles in LGWA) and show that deci-Hz observations can measure the chirp mass even better than 3G instruments and yield good sky localization and inclination measurement, even with a single observatory. Opening the deci-Hz band would substantially improve the prospects of GW astronomy for intermediate-mass BBHs.

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Francesco Iacovelli, Jacopo Tissino, Jan Harms, Emanuele Berti. 2025-12-10. Gravitational-wave parameter estimation to the Moon and back: massive binaries and the case of GW231123. https://doi.org/10.1103/d2rh-btf9

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