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arXiv · 2512.13506

Learning under Distributional Drift: Prequential Reproducibility as an Intrinsic Statistical Resource

Sofiya Zaichyk
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Abstract

Statistical learning under distributional drift remains poorly characterized, especially in closed-loop settings where learning alters the data-generating law. We introduce an intrinsic drift budget $C_T$ that quantifies cumulative information-geometric motion of the data distribution along the realized learner-environment trajectory, measured in Fisher-Rao distance. The budget separates exogenous environmental change from policy-sensitive feedback induced by the learner's actions. This gives a rate-based characterization of prequential reproducibility: when performance on the realized stream is used to predict one-step-ahead performance under the next distribution, the drift contribution enters through the average motion rate $C_T/T$, not through cumulative drift alone. We prove a drift-feedback bound of order $T^{-1/2}+C_T/T$, up to controlled second-order remainder terms, and establish a matching sharpness lower bound for the same prequential reproducibility gap on a canonical regular subclass. Thus the dependence on the average Fisher-Rao motion rate is tight up to constants: $C_T/T$ is sufficient for upper control and unavoidable on regular hard subclasses. We further prove an information-theoretic indistinguishability result showing that order-$C/T$ effects on the one-step-ahead target need not be identifiable from the realized performance stream alone. Finally, we show that fixed monitoring channels induce contracted observable Fisher motion, and experiments, including a misspecified real-data feedback setting, indicate that appropriately chosen channels can retain risk-relevant drift signal when the intrinsic data-generating law is unavailable. The resulting theory treats exogenous drift, adaptive data analysis, and performative feedback as different sources of Fisher-Rao motion along the same learner-environment trajectory.

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Sofiya Zaichyk. 2025-12-15. Learning under Distributional Drift: Prequential Reproducibility as an Intrinsic Statistical Resource. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.13506

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