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arXiv · 2512.17956

Victor Calibration (VC): Multi-Pass Confidence Calibration and CP4.3 Governance Stress Test under Round-Table Orchestration

Victor Stasiuc
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Abstract

Safety alignment can make frontier LMs overly conservative, degrading collaboration via hedging or false refusals. We present a lightweight toolkit with three parts: (1) Victor Calibration (VC), a multi-pass protocol that elicits a scalar confidence proxy T (T0<T1<T2) through iterative evidence re-evaluation; (2) FD-Lite, a behavior-only phenomenology audit with a fixed anchor phrase and a meta-prefix trap to avoid anthropomorphic claims; and (3) CP4.3, a governance stress test for rank invariance and allocation monotonicity (M6). Across Claude 4.5 models (Haiku, Sonnet no-thinking, Sonnet thinking) and Opus, we observe monotonic VC trajectories without violating safety invariants, and stable CP4.3 behavior. ("Opus" here refers to a single Claude Opus 4.1 session accessed via a standard UI account, as reported in Table 1.) This work was conducted by a single operator (n=1) and is intended as hypothesis-generating; we explicitly invite replication, critique, and extension by the research community. We include prompt templates and an artifact plan to facilitate independent verification.

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Victor Stasiuc. 2025-12-18. Victor Calibration (VC): Multi-Pass Confidence Calibration and CP4.3 Governance Stress Test under Round-Table Orchestration. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.17956

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