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arXiv · 2512.18112

Bayesian Holonic Systems: Equilibrium, Uniqueness, and Computation

Yunian Pan·Quanyan Zhu
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Abstract

This paper addresses the challenge of modeling and control in hierarchical, multi-agent systems, known as holonic systems, where local agent decisions are coupled with global systemic outcomes. We introduce the Bayesian Holonic Equilibrium (BHE), a concept that ensures consistency between agent-level rationality and system-wide emergent behavior. We establish the theoretical soundness of the BHE by showing its existence and, under stronger regularity conditions, its uniqueness. We propose a two-time scale learning algorithm to compute such an equilibrium. This algorithm mirrors the system's structure, with a fast timescale for intra-holon strategy coordination and a slow timescale for inter-holon belief adaptation about external risks. The convergence of the algorithm to the theoretical equilibrium is validated through a numerical experiment on a continuous public good game. This work provides a complete theoretical and algorithmic framework for the principled design and analysis of strategic risk in complex, coupled control systems.

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Yunian Pan, Quanyan Zhu. 2025-12-19. Bayesian Holonic Systems: Equilibrium, Uniqueness, and Computation. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.18112

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