A Neural-Network Model-Measurement-Based Observation Operator For Weather Radar Reflectivity Assimilation

Abstract

In three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar) for numerical weather prediction (NWP), the observation operator $\mathcal{H}$ plays a central role by mapping model state variables to an observation equivalent. For weather radar, however, specifying $\mathcal{H}$ is particularly challenging: reflectivity is a nonlinear, microphysics-dependent diagnostic quantity that only indirectly relates to the model's prognostic variables, making traditional parameterised radar operators complex, regime-dependent and difficult to tune. In this study, we propose a neural-network (NN)-based observation operator for radar reflectivity and apply it within a 3DVar framework. Using five years (2019-2023) of radar reflectivity data from the Lisca radar and 4.4 km-resolution short-range forecasts from ALADIN model over Slovenia, we train a convolutional encoder-decoder neural network to map model temperature, humidity, horizontal wind components and surface pressure fields to radar reflectivity. Across independent test cases spanning clear-sky, stratiform, and convective regimes, the NN-based operator accurately reproduces the spatial structure and intensity of observed reflectivity, relying primarily on the model state near the observation point. In the extreme precipitation case, which caused widespread floods in Slovenia on August 4, 2023, assimilating the full radar disc reduces the domain-averaged reflectivity root-mean-square error from 5.99 dBZ to 3.47 dBZ and improves the alignment between the analysed and observed convective bands. Embedded within 3DVar, the Jacobian of the NN observation operator allows radar reflectivity observations to inform model state variables, producing corresponding analysis increments. The proposed NN radar observation operator offers a flexible alternative to traditional parameterised radar operators for improving convective-storm forecasts.