arXiv · 2512.22262
INSIGHT: Spatially resolved survival modelling from routine histology crosslinked with molecular profiling reveals prognostic epithelial-immune axes in stage II/III colorectal cancer
Abstract
Routine histology contains rich prognostic information in stage II/III colorectal cancer, much of which is embedded in complex spatial tissue organisation. We present INSIGHT, a graph neural network that predicts survival directly from routine histology images. Trained and cross-validated on TCGA (n=342) and SURGEN (n=336), INSIGHT produces patient-level spatially resolved risk scores. Large independent validation showed superior prognostic performance compared with pTNM staging (C-index 0.68-0.69 vs 0.44-0.58). INSIGHT spatial risk maps recapitulated canonical prognostic histopathology and identified nuclear solidity and circularity as quantitative risk correlates. Integrating spatial risk with data-driven spatial transcriptomic signatures, spatial proteomics, bulk RNA-seq, and single-cell references revealed an epithelium-immune risk manifold capturing epithelial dedifferentiation and fetal programs, myeloid-driven stromal states including $\mathrm{SPP1}^{+}$ macrophages and $\mathrm{LAMP3}^{+}$ dendritic cells, and adaptive immune dysfunction. This analysis exposed patient-specific epithelial heterogeneity, stratification within MSI-High tumours, and high-risk routes of CDX2/HNF4A loss and CEACAM5/6-associated proliferative programs, highlighting coordinated therapeutic vulnerabilities.
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Piotr Keller, Mark Eastwood, Zedong Hu, Aimée Selten, Ruqayya Awan, Gertjan Rasschaert, Sara Verbandt, Vlad Popovici, Hubert Piessevaux, Hayley T Morris, Petros Tsantoulis, Thomas Alexander McKee, André D'Hoore, Cédric Schraepen, Xavier Sagaert, Gert De Hertogh, Sabine Tejpar, Fayyaz Minhas. 2025-12-24. INSIGHT: Spatially resolved survival modelling from routine histology crosslinked with molecular profiling reveals prognostic epithelial-immune axes in stage II/III colorectal cancer. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.22262
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