Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2601.02260

Misinterpreting Spin Precession as Orbital Eccentricity in Gravitational-Wave Signals

Snehal Tibrewal·Aaron Zimmerman·Jacob Lange·Deirdre Shoemaker
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

The increasing scope and breadth of gravitational wave detectors is providing the opportunity to explore new parameters in gravitational-wave astronomy. Eccentricity and spin-precession are two key observables to infer the origin of a gravitational wave (GW) source. The interpretation of GW source parameters can be plagued by degeneracy, such as the well-known degeneracy between mass and spin. As the field has explored new parameters, questions have been raised about possible degeneracies between eccentricity and spin-precession. Although some state-of-the-art models now include these effects individually, models that incorporate spin-precession and eccentricity are only in their infancy. Until models faithfully cover the complete parameter space of compact binary coalescence, our ability to correctly measure the source parameters and infer the formation of the binary is compromised. Here, we present a study of the distinguishability of these two key parameters. Our work finds that there is indeed a degeneracy between eccentricity and spin-precession; however, it is a highly localized effect. We find that the misidentified eccentricity estimates get worse as the signal gets shorter. Additionally, this misidentification is highly sensitive to the inclination angle of the source system. We provide quantifiable estimates of the potency of this degeneracy in addition to identifying some of the regions of parameter space where this degeneracy exists.

Explore related subjects

gr-qc

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Snehal Tibrewal, Aaron Zimmerman, Jacob Lange, Deirdre Shoemaker. 2026-01-05. Misinterpreting Spin Precession as Orbital Eccentricity in Gravitational-Wave Signals. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.02260

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc↗