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arXiv · 2601.14852

Recovering Risk-Neutral Moments from Options

Tjeerd De Vries
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Abstract

Extracting risk-neutral dependence from option prices has remained an open problem since Ross (1976). We propose a projection estimator that uses portfolios of observed options to approximate payoffs depending on multiple assets. The method delivers estimates of risk-neutral dependence in incomplete markets, improves univariate estimates, and yields a finite-sample error bound. Applying the method to two unexpected Swiss National Bank announcements about the EUR/CHF floor, we find that dependence accounts for two-thirds of the change in the probability that EUR/CHF and USD/CHF both fall sharply. A policy targeting EUR/CHF thus reshaped dependence in the CHF market.

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Tjeerd De Vries. 2026-01-21. Recovering Risk-Neutral Moments from Options. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.14852

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