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arXiv · 2602.04146

Bayes, E-values and Testing

Nicholas G. Polson·Vadim Sokolov·Daniel Zantedeschi
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Abstract

E-values and E-processes (nonnegative supermartingales) provide anytime-valid evidence for sequential testing via Ville's inequality, yet their connection to Bayesian reasoning, representational structure, and computational feasibility are often conflated in the literature. We develop a typed framework that separates sequential evidence into three layers: (i) representation (Radon-Nikodym / likelihood-ratio geometry), (ii) validity (supermartingale certificates under optional stopping), and (iii) decision (boundary design and efficiency calibration). Our main results are: (a) under log-loss and Bayes-risk minimization, the likelihood ratio is the unique evidence representation within the coherent predictive subclass; (b) the likelihood-ratio stopping time satisfies E_1[tau_b] = (log b)/mu + O(sqrt(log b)) under Cramer conditions, while validity-only thresholds admit no such growth-rate guarantee; and (c) regret-optimal codes (e.g., NML/MDL) do not in general yield valid E-processes, while prequential codes do. Monte Carlo experiments confirm the theoretical predictions. The framework applies to online model validation, adaptive experimentation, conformal prediction, and sequential changepoint detection.

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Nicholas G. Polson, Vadim Sokolov, Daniel Zantedeschi. 2026-02-04. Bayes, E-values and Testing. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.04146

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