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arXiv · 2602.04667

Causal explanations of outliers in systems with lagged time-dependencies

Philipp Alexander Schwarz·Johannes Oberpriller·Sven Klaassen
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Abstract

Root-cause analysis in controlled time dependent systems poses a major challenge in applications. Especially energy systems are difficult to handle as they exhibit instantaneous as well as delayed effects and if equipped with storage, do have a memory. In this paper we adapt the causal root-cause analysis method of Budhathoki et al. [2022] to general time-dependent systems, as it can be regarded as a strictly causal definition of the term "root-cause". Particularly, we discuss two truncation approaches to handle the infinite dependency graphs present in time-dependent systems. While one leaves the causal mechanisms intact, the other approximates the mechanisms at the start nodes. The effectiveness of the different approaches is benchmarked using a challenging data generation process inspired by a problem in factory energy management: the avoidance of peaks in the power consumption. We show that given enough lags our extension is able to localize the root-causes in the feature and time domain. Further the effect of mechanism approximation is discussed.

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Philipp Alexander Schwarz, Johannes Oberpriller, Sven Klaassen. 2026-02-04. Causal explanations of outliers in systems with lagged time-dependencies. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.04667

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