Uncertainty in Island-based Ecosystem Services and Climate Change

Abstract

Small and medium-sized islands are acutely exposed to climate change and ecosystem degradation, yet the extent to which uncertainty is systematically addressed in scientific assessments of their ecosystem services remains poorly understood. This study revisits 226 peer-reviewed articles drawn from two global systematic reviews on island ecosystem services and climate change, applying a structured post hoc analysis to evaluate how uncertainty is treated across methods, service categories, ecosystem realms, and decision contexts. Studies were classified according to whether uncertainty was explicitly analysed, just mentioned, or ignored. Only 30 percent of studies incorporated uncertainty explicitly, while more than half did not address it at all. Scenario-based approaches dominated uncertainty assessment, whereas probabilistic and ensemble-based frameworks remained limited. Cultural ecosystem services and extreme climate impacts exhibited the lowest levels of uncertainty integration, and few studies connected uncertainty treatment to policy relevant decision frameworks. Weak or absent treatment of uncertainty emerges as a structural challenge in island systems, where narrow ecological thresholds, strong land-sea coupling, limited spatial buffers, and reduced institutional redundancy amplify the consequences of decision-making under incomplete knowledge. Systematic mapping of how uncertainty is framed, operationalised, or neglected reveals persistent methodological and conceptual gaps and informs concrete directions for strengthening uncertainty integration in future island-focused ecosystem service and climate assessments. Embedding uncertainty more robustly into modelling practices, participatory processes, and policy tools is essential for enhancing scientific credibility, governance relevance, and adaptive capacity in insular socio-ecological systems.