Position: Universal Time Series Foundation Models Rest on a Category Error

Xilin Dai; Wanxu Cai; Zhijian Xu; Qiang Xu

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arXiv · 2602.05287

Position: Universal Time Series Foundation Models Rest on a Category Error

Xilin Dai·Wanxu Cai·Zhijian Xu·Qiang Xu

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Abstract

This position paper argues that the pursuit of "Universal Foundation Models for Time Series" rests on a fundamental category error, mistaking a structural Container for a semantic Modality. We contend that because time series hold incompatible generative processes (e.g., finance vs. fluid dynamics), monolithic models degenerate into expensive "Generic Filters" that fail to generalize under distributional drift. To address this, we introduce the "Autoregressive Blindness Bound," a theoretical limit proving that history-only models cannot predict intervention-driven regime shifts. We advocate replacing universality with a Causal Control Agent paradigm, where an agent leverages external context to orchestrate a hierarchy of specialized solvers, from frozen domain experts to lightweight Just-in-Time adaptors. We conclude by calling for a shift in benchmarks from "Zero-Shot Accuracy" to "Drift Adaptation Speed" to prioritize robust, control-theoretic systems.

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Xilin Dai, Wanxu Cai, Zhijian Xu, Qiang Xu. 2026-02-05. Position: Universal Time Series Foundation Models Rest on a Category Error. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.05287

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