Time delays and stationarity in quasar light curves

Abstract

We present a fully Bayesian framework for time delay inference and stationarity tests in quasar light curves using marginalised Gaussian processes. The model separates a deterministic, non-stationary drift (piecewise linear mean) from stationary stochastic variability (Mat\'ern and Spectral Mixture kernels), and jointly models multiple images with per-image microlensing. Bayesian evidence and parameter posteriors are obtained via nested sampling and marginalised over model choices. Applied to the quasars WFI J2033 - 4723, B 1608 + 656, and HE 0435 - 1223, we find strong evidence for non-stationarity in B 1608 + 656 and HE 0435 - 1223, while WFI J2033 - 4723 is consistent with stationarity. The stochastic component favours an Markovian exponential kernel for B 1608 + 656 and a non-Markovian Mat\'ern-$\frac32$ kernel for WFI J2033 - 4723 and HE 0435 - 1223. Multi-length-scale Spectral Mixture kernels are disfavoured. Time delays are shown to be robust to model assumptions and consistent with prior work within the error. We further identify and mitigate a likelihood pathology which biases toward large delays, providing a practical nested sampling convergence protocol.