Cusp Bifurcation in Conceptual Thermohaline Circulation Model

Jasmine Noory

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arXiv · 2602.11542

Cusp Bifurcation in Conceptual Thermohaline Circulation Model

Jasmine Noory

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Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is often analyzed using low-order box models to understand tipping points. Historically, these studies focus on freshwater flux as the primary bifurcation parameter, treating the temperature gradient as a fixed restoring target. However, the erosion of the equator-to-pole temperature contrast due to polar amplification suggests that thermal forcing should be treated as a dynamic control parameter. In this study, we use Cessi's reduced box model to map the global bifurcation structure of the thermohaline circulation. We relax the assumption of a fixed thermal background and analyze the system's behavior under joint thermal and haline forcing. We prove the existence of a cusp bifurcation, identifying the specific geometry of pitchfork and saddle-node bifurcations that bound the stable regime. This geometric characterization reveals that thermal erosion acts as a distinct mechanism for destabilization, capable of driving the system across critical thresholds even in the absence of anomalous freshwater forcing.

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Jasmine Noory. 2026-02-12. Cusp Bifurcation in Conceptual Thermohaline Circulation Model. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.11542

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