Compound decisions and empirical Bayes via Bayesian nonparametrics

Nikolaos Ignatiadis; Sid Kankanala

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arXiv · 2602.20115

Compound decisions and empirical Bayes via Bayesian nonparametrics

Nikolaos Ignatiadis·Sid Kankanala

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Abstract

We study compound decision theory from a nonparametric Bayesian perspective, with particular emphasis on their relationship to empirical Bayes (EB) procedures. Motivated by the sharp risk guarantees available for EB procedures based on the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE), we investigate whether analogous guarantees can be established for fully Bayesian decision rules. In a class of Gaussian compound decision problems, we show that the fully Bayesian posterior mean achieves near-optimal risk. Moreover, it is admissible as a genuine Bayes rule, whereas the corresponding NPMLE plug-in rule is inadmissible. Simulations illustrate the performance of nonparametric Bayes procedures relative to common alternatives. As an application, we apply our methodology to Census tract-level estimates of economic mobility from the Opportunity Atlas.

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Nikolaos Ignatiadis, Sid Kankanala. 2026-02-23. Compound decisions and empirical Bayes via Bayesian nonparametrics. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.20115

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