Searcharxiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2602.22074

Beyond Gaussian Assumptions: A new robust statistical framework for gravitational-wave data analysis

Argyro Sasli·Minas Karamanis·Nikolaos Karnesis·Michael W. Coughlin·Vuk Mandic·Uroš Seljak·Nikolaos Stergioulas
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Many traditional algorithms applied in gravitational-wave astronomy rely on the assumption of Gaussian noise, a condition not always met. To meet this need, this study extends a robust statistical framework, advancing previous work on heavy-tailed likelihoods, that adapts the hyperbolic likelihood method for full frequency domain applications. The framework is designed to maintain high performance under ideal conditions while improving robustness against non-Gaussian noise and outliers in real-world data. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach through two key case studies. The first case study analyzes a massive black hole binary merger in simulated Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) data with Gaussian noise, showing that the extended hyperbolic likelihood method performs comparably to the more commonly used Whittle likelihood. The second case study examines a stellar-mass black hole binary merger using real ground-based gravitational-wave data containing non-Gaussian noise or overlapping signals, where our framework exhibits increased robustness and yields more accurate parameter estimations. Our results show that the hyperbolic likelihood better captures the true noise distribution, providing a flexible and physically motivated alternative for GW data analysis across current and future detectors.

Explore related subjects

gr-qc

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Argyro Sasli, Minas Karamanis, Nikolaos Karnesis, Michael W. Coughlin, Vuk Mandic, Uroš Seljak, Nikolaos Stergioulas. 2026-02-25. Beyond Gaussian Assumptions: A new robust statistical framework for gravitational-wave data analysis. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.22074

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Electrovacuum Black Hole Uniqueness

We prove the black hole uniqueness conjecture in the axially symmetric, stationary, electrovacuum setting, subject to the refined asymptotic analysis of the associated singular harmonic maps, which includes an analyticity hypothesis at the axes. More precisely, it is shown that any asymptotically flat solution of the Einstein--Maxwell equations in this class, with more than one black hole horizon component is either: Majumdar--Papapetrou, up to a duality rotation, in which case all logarithmic angle defects vanish, or every finite axis rod logarithmic angle defect is strictly negative and hence every interaction force is strictly attractive. The proof extends the singular harmonic map method used for vacuum Kerr uniqueness in [18].

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Constraining Modified Mass-to-Horizon Cosmology Through Primordial Inflationary Observables

We investigate slow-roll inflation in a modified cosmological framework inspired by a generalized mass-to-horizon relation (MHR), $M=\gamma {c^2 L^n}/{G}$, where $n$ is a real parameter and $\gamma$ a dimensional constant. Using Padmanabhan's emergence paradigm, we derive the modified Friedmann equations for a flat FRW universe and analyze the dynamics of a canonical scalar field (inflaton) under the slow-roll approximation. We study the resulting inflationary phenomenology for power-law and Starobinsky potentials. For power-law potentials, the MHR modification fails to reconcile these models with current CMB constraints on $r$ and $n_s$. In contrast, Starobinsky inflation exhibits significant sensitivity to deviations from $n=1$. A perturbative analysis ($n=1+\Delta$) yields corrections to inflationary observables. We observe that the scalar power-spectrum normalization, under a fixed-Starobinsky prescription, imposes the stringent constraint $0.960 \lesssim n \lesssim 1.040$ for $N=60$ efolds. This is considerably tighter than spectral-index bounds. Our results establish inflation, particularly Starobinsky-like models, as a sensitive probe of generalized horizon thermodynamics and departures from standard MHR scaling.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

In the last decade, kilometre-scale interferometric gravitational-wave detectors have observed hundreds of compact binary mergers, the majority of which are binary black holes. However, the data are noise-dominated, and multiple independent search algorithms (pipelines) are used to enhance sensitivity and improve robustness. Rather than the standard approach of selecting the most significant pipeline output, we combine the outputs from all pipelines using a conformal prediction-based framework to provide statistically rigorous confidence estimates for candidate events. While combining pipelines improves sensitivity and ranking robustness, it requires a principled statistical framework that remains valid as data properties evolve across observing runs. A key challenge is distribution shifts between simulated datasets used for training and calibration and the real, unlabelled, observations used for testing, which can invalidate coverage guarantees and bias confidence estimates. In this work, we address this challenge by incorporating likelihood-ratio reweighting into our conformal prediction framework to account for covariate shift. Using mock datasets containing simulated signals, we demonstrate that weighted conformal prediction restores well-calibrated coverage under covariate shift and increases the confidence of events near the detection threshold, recovering true signals that would otherwise be missed.

gr-qc↗