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arXiv · 2603.00422

Coupled Supply and Demand Forecasting in Platform Accommodation Markets

Harrison Katz
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Abstract

Tourism demand forecasting is methodologically mature, but it typically treats accommodation supply as fixed or exogenous. In platform-mediated short-term rentals, supply is elastic, decision-driven, and co-evolves with demand through pricing, information design, and interventions. I reframe the core issue as endogenous stock-out censoring: realized booked nights satisfy B_{k,t} <= min(D_{k,t}, S_{k,t}), so booking models that ignore supply learn a regime-specific ceiling and become fragile under policy changes and supply shocks. This narrated review synthesizes work from tourism forecasting, revenue management, two-sided market economics, and Bayesian time-series methods; develops a three-part coupling framework (behavioral, informational, intervention); and illustrates the identification failure with a toy simulation. I conclude with a focused research agenda for jointly forecasting supply, demand, and their compositions.

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BibTeXRIS

Harrison Katz. 2026-02-28. Coupled Supply and Demand Forecasting in Platform Accommodation Markets. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2026.105514

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