Analysis of Stepped-Wedge Randomised Cluster Trial using a generalized pairwise comparison approach : a simulation study

Yohan Bard; Emilie Presles; Marc Buyse; Silvy Laporte; Paul Zufferey; Frederikus A. Klok; Olivier Sanchez; Francis Couturaud; Edouard Ollier

arXiv · 2603.02003

Analysis of Stepped-Wedge Randomised Cluster Trial using a generalized pairwise comparison approach : a simulation study

Yohan Bard·Emilie Presles·Marc Buyse·Silvy Laporte·Paul Zufferey·Frederikus A. Klok·Olivier Sanchez·Francis Couturaud·Edouard Ollier

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Abstract

Stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials (SW-CRTs) increasingly evaluate complex interventions, yet methodological guidance for analysing composite endpoints using generalized pairwise comparisons (GPC)remains limited. This work investigates the performance of several GPC-based estimators in the presence of clustering, temporal trends, and varying correlation structures typical of SW-CRTs. We conducted an extensive simulation study covering a range of intraclass correlations (ICC), cluster autocorrelation coefficients (CAC), time effects, and treatment effect sizes. Eight analytical approaches were compared, including unadjusted estimators, cluster-stratified win odds, mixed-effects models applied to cluster-period win odds, and probabilistic index models (PIMs). Type I error control was strongly compromised for methods ignoring time or clustering, whereas only two approaches consistently maintained nominal error rates: a hierarchical mixed-effects model with sequence and cluster-level random slopes (b4) and a cluster-restricted PIM (c2). These two methods were further evaluated in terms of statistical power, where c2 generally showed higher efficiency, particularly under strong clustering, low CAC, or the presence of temporal trends, while both converged to similar performance for large treatment effects. Overall, our findings identify b4 and c2 as the most reliable GPC-based strategies for SW-CRT analysis and provide practical guidance for their application, including for ongoing trials such as ETHER.

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Yohan Bard, Emilie Presles, Marc Buyse, Silvy Laporte, Paul Zufferey, Frederikus A. Klok, Olivier Sanchez, Francis Couturaud, Edouard Ollier. 2026-03-02. Analysis of Stepped-Wedge Randomised Cluster Trial using a generalized pairwise comparison approach : a simulation study. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.02003

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