Fusing Sparse Observations and Dense Simulations for Spatial Extreme Value Analysis: Application to U.S. Coastal Sea Levels

Abstract

Estimating spatial extremes from sparse observational networks produces uncertain return level maps, but dense output from physics-based simulation models is often available as a complementary data source. We develop a two-stage frequentist frame-work for fusing observations and simulations. In Stage 1, generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions are fitted independently at each site, with a nonstationary location parameter where appropriate to accommodate observed trends. In Stage 2, the parameter estimates from all sources are modeled jointly as a high-dimensional spatial process through a linear model of coregionalization (LMC). Cross-source correlations, estimated from spatially interspersed networks without co-located sites, provide the mechanism for information transfer; an analytic gradient for the resulting likelihood keeps estimation computationally practical. We apply the framework to U.S. coastal sea levels over 1979-2021, fusing 29 NOAA tide gauge records with 100 ADCIRC hydrodynamic simulation sites. Leave-one-out cross-validation shows a 35% reduction in 100-year return level RMSE relative to a gauge-only model. Geographic block cross-validation confirms that fusion benefits persist under spatial extrapolation. The approach is implemented in the R package evfuse.