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arXiv · 2603.03611

Idealized Impacts of Mountainous Terrain on the Energetics of Hurricane Melissa (2025)

Michael Igbinoba
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Abstract

This study examines the decay of Hurricane Melissa (2025) as the storm crossed the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, focusing on changes in inner-core energetics. Using NOAA P-3 reconnaissance observations near the 700 hPa level, integrated kinetic energy within 100 km of the storm center was computed before and after land interaction to quantify vortex weakening. During the approximately four hour period in which the center remained over Jamaica, the storm experienced rapid degradation, including a 48 percent reduction in peak tangential wind, a 58 hPa rise in central pressure, and a 41 percent decrease in integrated kinetic energy. To investigate the mechanisms responsible for this decay, the observations were compared with results from an idealized axisymmetric tangential momentum diffusion model that isolates the effects of vertical turbulent mixing and enhanced surface drag. Despite its simplified physics, the model reproduces many leading order features of the observed weakening, including substantial reductions in tangential wind and a 36 percent decline in integrated kinetic energy. These results indicate that enhanced friction and turbulent mixing associated with extremely rough mountainous terrain can account for a large fraction of the rapid spin down observed during land interaction. Differences between the model and observations suggest that additional processes such as asymmetric dynamics, terrain induced flow distortion, and thermodynamic feedbacks further amplify the weakening of intense tropical cyclones over land.

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Michael Igbinoba. 2026-03-04. Idealized Impacts of Mountainous Terrain on the Energetics of Hurricane Melissa (2025). https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.03611

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