Predicting the onset of period-doubling bifurcations via dominant eigenvalue extracted from autocorrelation

Abstract

Predicting the occurrence of transitions in the qualitative dynamics of many natural systems is crucial, yet it remains a challenging task. Generic early warning signals like variance and lag-1 autocorrelation identify critical slowing down near tipping points but lack practical thresholds for predicting imminent transitions. More recent studies found that the dynamical eigenvalue is rooted in the framework of empirical dynamical modeling and then estimates the dominant eigenvalue of a system from time series, providing a threshold ($|$DEV$|$ = 1) to predict bifurcations and classify their types. However, its application requires careful calibration of the hyperparameters and focuses on reconstructing system dynamics directly from data. Here, we employ Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to derive analytic approximations for the lag-$\tau$ autocorrelation function prior to period-doubling bifurcation thereby estimating the dominant eigenvalue of dynamical systems, named dominant eigenvalue extracted from autocorrelation (DE-AC), and revealing its dynamic behaviour when approaching a period-doubling bifurcation. Theoretically, dominant eigenvalue tends to $-1$ when the system approaches a period-doubling bifurcation. In particular, we evaluated DE-AC on simulation data from cardiac alternans model and on experimental data from chick heart aggregates undergoing a period-doubling bifurcation. DE-AC reliably detected the beginning of the cardiac arrhythmia (period-doubling bifurcation) in most cases. Moreover, it demonstrated superior sensitivity and specificity as an early warning signal compared to the three widely used indicators -- variance, lag-1 autocorrelation, and dynamical eigenvalue. Our theoretical and empirical results suggest that DE-AC represents a quantitative measure for predicting the onset of potentially dangerous alternating rhythms in the heart.