Bayesian Linear Programming under Learned Uncertainty: Posterior Feasibility Guarantees, Scenario Certification, and Applications

Abstract

Linear programming is widely used for decision-making in science, engineering, and operations research, yet in many modern applications the coefficients entering the constraints and objective are not known exactly and must be learned from data. Classical stochastic and robust optimization offer two influential paradigms for handling such uncertainty, but they typically treat the underlying uncertainty description as given and do not directly integrate priors and updated to posteriors guarantees. This paper develops a Bayesian framework for linear programming in which uncertain quantities are modeled probabilistically, updated through observed data, and propagated into optimization through posterior feasibility requirements. We present two complementary computational strategies: a credible-region robustification that converts posterior uncertainty into deterministic protection, and a posterior-scenario approach that uses sampled posterior realizations to construct tractable optimization problems with finite-sample interpretability. We also propose a Monte Carlo certification procedure that provides conservative, data-conditioned assessments of residual infeasibility. Simulation experiments show that the proposed framework substantially improves safety relative to naive plug-in decisions, while a real-data study on single-cell transcriptomic data demonstrates that the approach can produce scientifically interpretable decisions together with explicit uncertainty-aware feasibility diagnostics. The proposed methodology offers a unified bridge between Bayesian learning, optimization under uncertainty, and practical decision certification.