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arXiv · 2603.07509

Brexit Means Brexit: Selection Bias, Echo Chambers, and Entrenched Opinion on Reddit

Marian-Andrei Rizoiu·Duy Khuu·Andrew Law·Christine Largeron
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Abstract

Political polarisation on structured discussion platforms such as Reddit differs fundamentally from that on broadcast platforms such as Twitter/X, yet most prior work targets the latter. We present an end-to-end framework for measuring and analysing polarisation dynamics, applied to the r/Brexit subreddit (871K submissions, November 2015 -- February 2021). We construct r/Brexit, a crowd-annotated stance dataset of 5,024 labelled submissions (inter-annotator agreement = 0.804), and train a domain-adapted BERT classifier. We introduce a continuous polarity metric that replaces discrete stance categories, revealing fine-grained opinion spectra across 27 politically-defined periods. Our analysis yields three findings: (a) future stance prediction is confounded by survivorship bias: who remains active is self-selected on engagement, not stance, biasing any longitudinal model toward a non-representative minority; (b) echo chambers are quantifiably dominant, with nearly 40% of interactions between like-minded users; (c) user current polarity is the dominant predictor of future polarity, with echo-chamber immersion as the secondary predictive signal. These findings reveal that Reddit's partisan core is entrenched by self-selection, not softened by cross-cutting exposure.

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Marian-Andrei Rizoiu, Duy Khuu, Andrew Law, Christine Largeron. 2026-03-08. Brexit Means Brexit: Selection Bias, Echo Chambers, and Entrenched Opinion on Reddit. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.07509

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