Machine Learning of Vertical Fluxes by Unresolved Midlatitude Mesoscale Processes

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) can represent processes unresolved in coarse-resolution Earth system models (ESMs) by learning from high-resolution climate data. Such ML parameterization approaches have been primarily tested in idealized setups where they have focused on deep convection. It remains largely unexplored whether these approaches could be used in a more targeted fashion to learn vertical fluxes resulting from midlatitude mesoscale processes, such as slantwise convection and frontal dynamics in extratropical cyclones, which are not well represented in ESMs. To address this, we employ a variable-resolution CESM2 simulation with a refined area over the North Atlantic (14-km grid refinement) that resolves such midlatitude mesoscale processes. We train an artificial neural network to predict vertical profiles of mesoscale moisture, heat, and momentum fluxes from the perspective of a coarse-resolution (111-km grid) model. Our results show that a large number of features are required to achieve reasonable model performance when data come from the midlatitudes of real-geography atmospheric simulations, especially when coarse-grained vertical velocities, which we show are not representative of vertical velocities in a coarse-resolution model, are excluded as inputs. Feature importance analysis reveals the importance of vertically non-local information in temperature, moisture, and the meridional wind. We suggest that these non-local relationships capture the influence of cold air outbreaks and fronts on mesoscale fluxes. Our results demonstrate the importance of vertically non-local processes, clarify the regime-dependent predictability of mesoscale fluxes, and identify variables most informative for their parameterization, providing guidance for improving ESMs with ML and advancing our understanding of multi-scale interactions in the midlatitudes.