Threshold Dynamics of Voter Radicalization on the Probability Simplex

Alexander Omelchenko

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arXiv · 2603.07862

Threshold Dynamics of Voter Radicalization on the Probability Simplex

Alexander Omelchenko

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Abstract

We analyse two coupled ODE models of political competition on invariant probability simplices with a conserved electorate. The baseline three-group model tracks left-radical, centrist, and right-radical voter shares. We characterise the unique interior equilibrium by a Perron--Frobenius threshold, establish global asymptotic stability in the symmetric and asymmetric cases, and exclude periodic orbits unconditionally via the Dulac criterion. A structural consequence is that the baseline model cannot produce irreversible centrist decline, history-dependent long-run floors, or multiple attractors. We then extend the model with a disengaged voter compartment and distinguish pure state shocks from permanent structural parameter shifts. The post-shock dynamics are governed by the same spectral threshold: below it the centrist state is globally asymptotically stable; above it every trajectory with a nonzero radical seed converges to the unique radicalised equilibrium. Cumulative sub-threshold structural shifts can cross the threshold and produce staircase dynamics absent from the baseline; the symmetric reduction yields closed-form expressions for the critical shock amplitude and the radicalization window.

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Alexander Omelchenko. 2026-03-09. Threshold Dynamics of Voter Radicalization on the Probability Simplex. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.07862

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