Machine learning for sustainable geoenergy: uncertainty, physics and decision-ready inference

Abstract

Geoenergy projects (CO2 storage, geothermal, subsurface H2 generation/storage, critical minerals from subsurface fluids, or nuclear waste disposal) increasingly follow a petroleum-style funnel from screening and appraisal to operations, monitoring, and stewardship. Across this funnel, limited and heterogeneous observations must be turned into risk-bounded operational choices under strong physical and geological constraints - choices that control deployment rate, cost of capital, and the credibility of climate-mitigation claims. These choices are inherently multi-objective, balancing performance against containment, pressure footprint, induced seismicity, energy/water intensity, and long-term stewardship. We argue that progress is limited by four recurring bottlenecks: (i) scarce, biased labels and few field performance outcomes; (ii) uncertainty treated as an afterthought rather than the deliverable; (iii) weak scale-bridging from pore to basin (including coupled chemical-flow-geomechanics); and (iv) insufficient quality assurance (QA), auditability, and governance for regulator-facing deployment. We outline machine learning (ML) approaches that match these realities (hybrid physics-ML, probabilistic uncertainty quantification (UQ), structure-aware representations, and multi-fidelity/continual learning) and connect them to four anchor applications: imaging-to-process digital twins, multiphase flow and near-well conformance, monitoring and inverse problems (monitoring, measurement, and verification (MMV), including deformation and microseismicity), and basin-scale portfolio management. We close with a pragmatic agenda for benchmarks, validation, reporting standards, and policy support needed for reproducible and defensible ML in sustainable geoenergy.