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arXiv · 2603.18792

Rethinking Uncertainty Quantification and Entanglement in Image Segmentation

Jakob Lønborg Christensen·Vedrana Andersen Dahl·Morten Rieger Hannemose·Anders Bjorholm Dahl·Christian F. Baumgartner
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Abstract

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in safety-critical applications such as medical image segmentation. Total uncertainty is typically decomposed into data-related aleatoric uncertainty (AU) and model-related epistemic uncertainty (EU). Many methods exist for modeling AU (such as Probabilistic UNet, Diffusion) and EU (such as ensembles, MC Dropout), but it is unclear how they interact when combined. Additionally, recent work has revealed substantial entanglement between AU and EU, undermining the interpretability and practical usefulness of the decomposition. We present a comprehensive empirical study covering a broad range of AU-EU model combinations, propose a metric to quantify uncertainty entanglement, and evaluate both across downstream UQ tasks. Ensembles consistently exhibit lower entanglement and superior performance. Softmax models usually beat other AU methods, except in calibration where the results are dataset-dependent. A softmax ensemble performs remarkably well on all tasks. Finally, we analyze potential sources of uncertainty entanglement and outline directions for mitigating this effect.

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Jakob Lønborg Christensen, Vedrana Andersen Dahl, Morten Rieger Hannemose, Anders Bjorholm Dahl, Christian F. Baumgartner. 2026-03-19. Rethinking Uncertainty Quantification and Entanglement in Image Segmentation. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.18792

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