How delay, isolation and vaccination shape epidemic waves: a bifurcation approach in mathematical epidemiology

Mehdi Bouziane; Silia Bercisse; Abdennasser Chekroun; Simon Girel

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arXiv · 2603.24107

How delay, isolation and vaccination shape epidemic waves: a bifurcation approach in mathematical epidemiology

Mehdi Bouziane·Silia Bercisse·Abdennasser Chekroun·Simon Girel

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Abstract

This research paper introduces an SQIR-V epidemic model to investigate the transmission of infectious diseases. Particular attention is paid to the roles of vaccination and quarantine (incorporating physical distancing interventions) in protecting susceptible individuals. The model features nonlinear transition rates that depend on the history of infection, allowing the emergence of periodic solutions. We calculate the basic reproduction number, R 0 , and analyze the local asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points. Additionally, we demonstrate that the diseasefree equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R 0 $\le$ 1. The study further explores the existence of periodic solutions through a Hopf bifurcation, showing the occurrence of epidemic waves. A condition was derived to determine the direction of the crossing of the imaginary axis. We finish by presenting some numerical simulations to illustrate how vaccination and isolation delays influence disease dynamics. Those findings highlight potential areas for further research and validation.

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Mehdi Bouziane, Silia Bercisse, Abdennasser Chekroun, Simon Girel. 2026-03-25. How delay, isolation and vaccination shape epidemic waves: a bifurcation approach in mathematical epidemiology. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.24107

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