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arXiv · 2603.26937

Stochastic coupling of climate variables and ice volume over the Late Pleistocene glacial cycles

Pijush Patra·Ludovico T. Giorgini·J. S. Wettlaufer
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Abstract

Understanding the interactions between ice sheets and global climate forcings over geological timescales is essential for projecting their future. Previous studies have highlighted the role of ice dynamics and climate interactions in establishing the 100,000-year glacial cycles, particularly regarding the growth of the North American ice sheet. Researchers have reconstructed consistent time series for ice volume, temperature, and carbon dioxide by applying inverse forward modeling to benthic oxygen isotope records. Here we model the stochastic behavior of paleoclimate time series to evaluate the coupling between climate variables during the Pleistocene glacial cycles. We quantify the behavior of these time series using multifractal time-weighted detrended fluctuation analysis, which differentiates between near-red-noise and white-noise behavior below and above the 100,000-year glacial cycle, respectively, in all records. This study builds upon the work of Keyes et al. [Chaos vol. 33, 093132 (2023)] by incorporating ice volume into a five-variable model that includes carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and temperature, along with intervariable coupling terms to capture potential relationships among these variables. Our analysis shows that ice volume, carbon dioxide, and temperature have a stabilizing effect upon each other. To test our model, we compute response functions for each pair of variables and compare these with empirical data, confirming our predictions regarding intervariable stability and coupling. This study provides a comprehensive overview of glacial-interglacial dynamics and highlights the role of cryosphere-climate feedbacks in shaping Earth's climate evolution.

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Pijush Patra, Ludovico T. Giorgini, J. S. Wettlaufer. 2026-03-27. Stochastic coupling of climate variables and ice volume over the Late Pleistocene glacial cycles. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.26937

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