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arXiv · 2604.03300

AIFS-COMPO: A Global Data-Driven Atmospheric Composition Forecasting System

Paula Harder·Johannes Flemming·Mihai Alexe·Gert Mertes·Baudouin Raoult·Matthew Chantry
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Abstract

We introduce AIFS-COMPO, a skilful medium-range data-driven global forecasting system for aerosols and reactive gases. Building on the ECMWF Artificial Intelligence Forecast System (AIFS), AIFS-COMPO employs a transformer-based encoder-processor-decoder architecture to jointly model meteorological and atmospheric composition variables. The model is trained on Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis, analysis, and forecast data to learn the coupled dynamics of weather, emissions, transport, and atmospheric chemistry. We evaluate AIFS-COMPO against a range of atmospheric composition observations and compare its performance with the operational CAMS global forecasting system IFS-COMPO. The results show that AIFS-COMPO achieves comparable or improved forecast skill for several key species while requiring only a fraction of the computational resources. Furthermore, the efficiency of the approach enables forecasts beyond the current operational horizon, demonstrating the potential of AI-based systems for fast and accurate global atmospheric composition prediction.

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Paula Harder, Johannes Flemming, Mihai Alexe, Gert Mertes, Baudouin Raoult, Matthew Chantry. 2026-03-29. AIFS-COMPO: A Global Data-Driven Atmospheric Composition Forecasting System. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.03300

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