Scheduling the Unschedulable: Taming Black-Box LLM Inference at Scale

Abstract

When output token counts can be predicted at submission time (Gan et al., 2026), client-side scheduling against a black-box LLM API becomes semi-clairvoyant: decisions condition on coarse token priors even though the provider's internals remain hidden. We decompose this boundary problem into three separable concerns: allocation (inter-class share via adaptive DRR), ordering (intra-class sequencing with feasible-set scoring), and overload control (explicit admit/defer/reject on a cost ladder). An information ladder experiment shows that coarse magnitude priors -- not class labels alone -- are the practical threshold for useful client control; removing magnitude inflates short-request P95 by up to $5.8\times$ and degrades deadline satisfaction. Under balanced / high congestion the full stack achieves 100% completion, 100% deadline satisfaction, and useful goodput of $4.2 \pm 1.6$ SLO-meeting requests/s with short P95 within tens of milliseconds of quota-tiered isolation. A predictor-noise sweep confirms graceful degradation under up to 60% multiplicative error. Heavy-dominated regimes separate policies on completion, tail, and interpretable shedding. We further compare short-priority allocation (biased toward interactive traffic) with Fair Queuing (round-robin across classes): Fair Queuing achieves +32% short-request P90 improvement over FIFO with only +17% long-request overhead, versus Short-Priority's +27% / +116% trade-off -- demonstrating that the allocation layer accommodates different fairness objectives without changing the remaining stack. We contribute the three-layer client-side decomposition, controlled evaluation of joint metrics across regimes, allocation-policy alternatives, and overload-policy evidence linking cost-ladder shedding to the stated service objective.