Deciphering the IceCube Diffuse Neutrino Observations via AGN Variability

Caijin Xie; Zijian Qiu; Yudong Cui; Sujie Lin; Lili Yang

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arXiv · 2604.07824

Deciphering the IceCube Diffuse Neutrino Observations via AGN Variability

Caijin Xie·Zijian Qiu·Yudong Cui·Sujie Lin·Lili Yang

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Abstract

The physical origin of the diffuse neutrino background and its spectral break at $\sim$ 30 TeV remain a major puzzle in multi-messenger astrophysics. In this work, we demonstrate that this spectral feature is a natural consequence of AGN activity cycles and the resulting cosmic ray (CR) propagation. We present a unified model coupling the active and quiescent phases of AGNs, where CRs accelerated in the active core undergo subsequent diffusion and hadronic interactions in the host galaxy during the quiescent phase. The superposition of these distinct evolutionary phases yields dual spectral breaks, particularly the one at tens of TeV. Under realistic energetics, our model simultaneously accounts for the IceCube diffuse flux and fits the neutrino emissions of diverse sources, ranging from the blazar TXS 0506+056 to the Seyfert galaxies NGC 7469, CGCG 420-015, and the Circinus Galaxy. Our findings reveal that temporal variability is essential for deciphering the cosmic neutrino landscape and tracking high-energy CR escape.

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Caijin Xie, Zijian Qiu, Yudong Cui, Sujie Lin, Lili Yang. 2026-04-09. Deciphering the IceCube Diffuse Neutrino Observations via AGN Variability. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.07824

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