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arXiv · 2604.14257

Mapping the causal structure of price formation in Texas's transitioning electricity market

Shiva Madadkhani·Nils Sturma·Mathias Drton·Svetlana Ikonnikova
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Abstract

Renewable deployment and rising demand from electrification and large digital loads are transforming electricity markets. However, how these developments reshape electricity price dynamics remains poorly understood, leaving system planners, capacity investors, and market participants reliant on assumptions from a thermal-dominated era that may no longer hold. We use causal discovery to study the evolution of wholesale electricity prices in Texas, which is undergoing rapid transformation. Our findings overturn the view of Texas as a gas-price-driven market, demonstrating that wind generation has become the dominant causal driver of day-ahead prices, with effects more than three times greater than those of natural gas. Yet wind's price-suppressing effect is weakening during peak periods, and wind growth redistributes congestion costs to distant load centres. Furthermore, rising load in South and West Texas alters system prices and regional differentials. Uncovering the evolving spatiotemporal nature of causal drivers, our analysis reveals that the pace, geographic siting, and relative scale of new generation and large loads will be decisive for future electricity price risks, infrastructure needs, and investments.

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Shiva Madadkhani, Nils Sturma, Mathias Drton, Svetlana Ikonnikova. 2026-04-15. Mapping the causal structure of price formation in Texas's transitioning electricity market. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.14257

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