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arXiv · 2604.23582

Asynchronous Barter, Periodic Reconciliation: Evidence for a Scale-Free Commercial Network in the Indus Valley Civilization

Mahesh T C
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Abstract

The Harappan Civilization (c.\ 2600--1900 BCE) achieved extraordinary standardization across a vast region without clear evidence of centralized rule. We propose that it was a merchant commonwealth organized as a scale-free commercial network, with AP2PBS (Asynchronous Peer-to-Peer Barter Settlement) and the Unicorn Logistics Cartel (ULC) serving as inferential model labels for its coordinating institutions. Four lines of evidence support this interpretation. (1) \textbf{Statistical}: offering stand frequencies follow a power-law distribution with $\alpha \approx 2.3$--$2.6$, while seal counts across sites follow $\alpha \approx 1.55$; both fit heavy-tailed commercial organization better than exponential alternatives. (2) \textbf{Attribute correlations}: non-random associations between offering stands and anatomical attributes, including Cram\'er's V patterns across market tiers, are consistent with deliberate institutional design of visual confirmation bundles. (3) \textbf{Archaeological}: seal evolution, contextual distributions, and warehouse logistics support the operational requirements of long-distance asynchronous exchange. (4) \textbf{Architectural}: Mohenjo-daro's halls, bath, warehouses, and cart-compatible gridiron are consistent with infrastructure for commerce and coordination. Taken together, these findings are consistent with AP2PBS and ULC as models of how independent participants could standardize authentication, exchange value asynchronously, and coordinate across distance without a hierarchical state. Scale-free topology also offers a testable explanation for both Harappan longevity and its vulnerability to hub failure and cascading decline. The argument is inferential: the archaeological record does not directly identify AP2PBS or ULC by name, but its statistical, material, and architectural patterns are compatible with this decentralized commercial model.

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Mahesh T C. 2026-04-26. Asynchronous Barter, Periodic Reconciliation: Evidence for a Scale-Free Commercial Network in the Indus Valley Civilization. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19394894

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