Observation-Guided Neural Surrogate Learning for Scientific Simulation Emulation: A Single-Gauge Flood-Inundation Proof of Concept

Abstract

We present an observation-guided neural surrogate-learning framework for scientific simulation emulation, demonstrated on urban flood-inundation mapping. The framework combines LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic simulations with a real Gauge L stage record that is mapped to the simulation grid and converted to a datum-consistent local water-depth target before being used as single-site supervision. Focusing on a 256 x 256 crop around Gauge L in the Chicago metropolitan area, the method first constructs an ensemble-approximated Gaussian-process/local analogue surrogate (EnsCGP) to obtain a coarse flood-depth estimate and an uncertainty proxy. A U-Net-ASPP neural corrector then refines the coarse map using only simulation-derived and geospatial inputs: EnsCGP depth, the uncertainty proxy, rainfall, and spatial coordinates. The converted gauge-derived local depth is used only as a pointwise training target at the mapped gauge pixel; simulation-based losses are evaluated away from that pixel. Across temporally held-out events from 2013-2019, the emulator closely reproduces LISFLOOD-FP simulation targets outside the gauge-constrained pixel, with R^2 approximately 0.99 and mean absolute error below 0.01 m, and shows strong pointwise consistency with the converted Gauge L local depth target under the stated rolling-year protocol. We interpret these results as strong simulator-emulation agreement with pointwise observation-guided correction, not as independent validation of real-world inundation accuracy or as a complete operational flood-forecasting system.