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arXiv · 2604.27330

Twitter climate discourse as a signal of pro-environmental behaviors

Edoardo Maggioni·Diego Garlaschelli·Rossana Mastrandrea·Luca Maria Aiello
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Abstract

Fostering coordinated pro-environmental behaviors at scale is a key challenge for climate mitigation. Individual actions only generate meaningful impact when they diffuse widely and become socially coordinated, yet monitoring such processes remains difficult with traditional survey-based tools alone. In this study, we examine whether large-scale online climate discourse is associated with differences in offline pro-environmental behavior across European regions. We combine geolocated Twitter data from the Climate Change Twitter Dataset (2017-2019) with survey-based measures from the 2019 Special Eurobarometer, focusing on the regional density of climate-related tweets and the average number of self-reported pro-environmental actions. We find a strong positive association between tweet density and pro-environmental behavior that remains robust to socio-economic controls, alternative spatial aggregations, and a wide range of robustness checks. To move beyond aggregate volume, we further decompose online discourse using Natural Language Processing tools that capture distinct social dimensions. While knowledge exchange shows no clear relationship with offline behavior, the prevalence of activism- and social support-related expressions is negatively associated with pro-environmental actions. Overall, our results suggest that online climate discourse can serve as an informative, attention-related signal of regional differences in pro-environmental behavior, but that different forms of online engagement relate to offline action in markedly different ways. More broadly, the study highlights the potential of integrating large-scale digital traces with survey data to investigate collective behavior in socio-environmental systems, while remaining explicitly observational in scope.

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Edoardo Maggioni, Diego Garlaschelli, Rossana Mastrandrea, Luca Maria Aiello. 2026-04-30. Twitter climate discourse as a signal of pro-environmental behaviors. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.27330

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