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arXiv · 2605.01297

Are we Doomed to an AI Race? Why Self-Interest Could Drive Countries Towards a Moratorium on Superintelligence

Edward Roussel·Lode Lauwaert·Torben Swoboda·Grant Ramsey·Risto Uuk·Leonard Dung·Anthony Aguirre
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Abstract

This paper uses game theory to argue that, contrary to the prevailing view, a moratorium on Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) can be in a state's self-interest. By formalizing trategic interactions between geopolitical superpowers, we model the trade-off between the benefits of technological supremacy and the catastrophic risks of uncontrolled ASI. The analysis reveals that as the perceived cost of loss of control increases sufficiently relative to other parameters, it becomes in each state's self-interest to impose a moratorium. We further provide empirical evidence suggesting that the global perception of ASI risk is rising, making a stable, rational moratorium increasingly plausible in the current geopolitical landscape.

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Edward Roussel, Lode Lauwaert, Torben Swoboda, Grant Ramsey, Risto Uuk, Leonard Dung, Anthony Aguirre. 2026-05-02. Are we Doomed to an AI Race? Why Self-Interest Could Drive Countries Towards a Moratorium on Superintelligence. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.01297

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