Moderate deviations for the Maki--Thompson rumour model

Shaochen Wang; Guangyu Yang

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arXiv · 2605.08629

Moderate deviations for the Maki--Thompson rumour model

Shaochen Wang·Guangyu Yang

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Abstract

The final proportion of ignorants in the classical Maki--Thompson rumour model is known to satisfy the law of large numbers, the central limit theorem, and the large deviation principle. In this note, we establish the corresponding moderate deviation principle, thereby bridging the Gaussian fluctuation regime and the large deviation regime. The proof rests on the exact final-size distribution, sharp asymptotics for the associated automata numbers, and a uniform point probability expansion at the moderate deviation scale.

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Shaochen Wang, Guangyu Yang. 2026-05-09. Moderate deviations for the Maki--Thompson rumour model. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.08629

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