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arXiv · 2605.10979

Statin Recommendations among US Adults with the 2026 Dyslipidemia Guidelines

James A. Diao·Thomas A. Buckley·Andrew Z. Zhou·Smaraki Dash·Rishi K. Wadhera·Arjun K. Manrai
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Abstract

Importance: The 2026 multisociety dyslipidemia guideline recommended the PREVENT equations in place of the PCE equations, introduced 30-year risk assessment as a new treatment pathway, and lowered risk-based treatment thresholds. The net population impact of these concurrent changes on statin recommendations is unknown. Objective: To estimate changes in statin recommendations under 2026 PREVENT-based dyslipidemia guidelines compared with 2018 PCE-based guidelines. Design and Participants: Cross-sectional analysis of pooled data from NHANES, spanning 2011-2023 and comprising 24,199 participants aged 30-79 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Number and proportion of US adults receiving or recommended for statin therapy. Results: At the class 1 threshold, the number of US adults receiving or recommended for statin therapy decreased by an estimated 3.0 million (95% CI, 2.3 million to 3.6 million), with larger reductions among Black adults (-4.2 percentage points [pp]), men (-4.0pp), and adults aged 50-69 years (-5.6pp). At the class 2 threshold--which additionally recommends statins for adults aged 30-59 years based on 30-year risk--the number of adults recommended increased by an estimated 20.8 million (95% CI, 19.6 million to 22.0 million), or +11.6pp. The increase was largest among adults aged 50-59 years (+19.7pp) and 40-49 years (+14.8pp). Conclusions: The net population impact of the 2026 dyslipidemia guidelines depends critically on which recommendation class is applied. At the class 1 threshold, statin recommendations decreased modestly; at the class 2 threshold, inclusion of 30-year risk assessment substantially expanded recommendations, particularly among younger adults. These divergent effects underscore the importance of the 30-year risk criterion as a major driver of new eligibility and the need for outcomes and equity monitoring during guideline implementation.

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James A. Diao, Thomas A. Buckley, Andrew Z. Zhou, Smaraki Dash, Rishi K. Wadhera, Arjun K. Manrai. 2026-05-09. Statin Recommendations among US Adults with the 2026 Dyslipidemia Guidelines. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.10979

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