Macroscopic Activity-Based Modeling of Urban Active Mobility

Romain Azaïs; Adrien Marion; Florian Patout

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arXiv · 2605.13742

Macroscopic Activity-Based Modeling of Urban Active Mobility

Romain Azaïs·Adrien Marion·Florian Patout

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Abstract

This paper develops a macroscopic, activity-based model of urban active mobility using nonintrusive sensor data. It introduces attendance functions to describe spatio-temporal travel patterns between activities and formulates the disaggregation of aggregated counts as a statistical inference problem. Counts are modeled as Poisson variables, and unknown subpopulation sizes are estimated via maximum likelihood, with theoretical guarantees and an efficient EM algorithm for computation. Grounded in a microscopic stochastic model, the framework offers a scalable and privacy-preserving approach to analyzing urban soft mobility dynamics.

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Romain Azaïs, Adrien Marion, Florian Patout. 2026-05-13. Macroscopic Activity-Based Modeling of Urban Active Mobility. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.13742

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