Rate-induced tipping in a coral reef ecosystem: A slow increase in fishing effort can induce reef collapse

Abstract

Critical transitions describe sudden changes in the state of an ecosystem. In classical bifurcation theory, such transitions occur when the value of a parameter exceeds a threshold (``bifurcation") value. More recently, critical transitions which are triggered by the rate of change of a parameter were described by Wieczorek et al. [Wieczorek, S., Ashwin, P., Luke, C.M., Cox, P.M., Proceedings of the Royal Society A 467(2129), 1243-1269, 2011]. In mathematical ecology, these rate-induced transitions correspond to environmental conditions that deteriorate too rapidly for the ecosystem to adapt, resulting in population collapse (``R-tipping"). In this article, we consider the potential for rate-induced tipping due to increased anthropogenic stress in a recently proposed behavioural-demographic model for herbivorous fish, algae, and coral in a coral reef ecosystem [Gil, M.A., Baskett, M.L., Munch, S.B., Hein, A.M., PNAS 117(41), 25580-25589, 2020]. We first show that the underlying demographic model can be reframed naturally as a singularly perturbed system with two fast variables and one slow variable in which bistability can occur in ecologically relevant parameter regimes. We explore the potential for canard-type dynamics in the model, complementing numerical results with an analytical description through the lens of geometric singular perturbation theory, and we describe R-tipping as a result of an increase in the fishing effort. We show that trajectories will undergo canard-induced tipping by passage through a folded node singularity, whereas a folded focus may give rise to tipping of jump type; in both scenarios, a catastrophic collapse occurs in the populations of herbivorous fish and coral, with the population of algae experiencing a ``bloom". Alternatively, we may observe ``tracking" of a sustainable coexistence state between the three populations in the presence of a folded focus.