Gaussian Process-based learning with new MCMC-based implementation of Wishart prior on correlation matrix

Abstract

In probabilstic supervised learning of an input-output relationship - as a sample function of a Gaussian Process (GP) - priors are typically specified for the hyperparameters of the kernel that parametrises the covariance function of the GP, where the induced covariance matrix of the (resulting multivariate Normal) likelihood, governs the learning and prediction. When the sought function is highly multivariate, multiple lengthscale parameters must be learnt simultaneously, making inference difficult. We develop a ``self-assembled'' Wishart prior for the covariance matrix, while undertaking Bayesian inference on the kernel hyperparameters using MCMC. The construction uses a look-back window over recent MCMC iterations to define a time-step dependent scale matrix, thereby introducing adaptiveness to the chain. Results suggest that direct prior specification on the covariance matrix can be useful for diagnosing weakly informative inputs within the GP-based learning paradigm. We support our prior development with two distinct empirical illustrations - one on synthetic data, and another on a real-world dataset.