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arXiv · 2605.27184

Posterior Quantification of Borrowing from Multiple Historical Control Data in Bayesian Dynamic Borrowing Methods: A Scoping Review

Tomohiro Ohigashi·Wataru Murasaki·Masahiko Gosho
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Abstract

Bayesian dynamic borrowing methods incorporate historical control data into current clinical trial analyses while allowing the degree of borrowing to depend on the compatibility between historical and current data. Although many methods have been proposed, the degree of borrowing is often difficult to interpret, especially when multiple historical control sources are available. This scoping review focuses on posterior quantification of borrowing from multiple historical controls. We discuss overall borrowing summaries based on effective historical sample size, together with method-specific source-level summaries of borrowing, information contribution, or compatibility arising from power priors, unit information priors, multisource exchangeability models, Dirichlet process mixture models, and potential bias models. We distinguish posterior borrowing measures from quantities describing prior information allocation or source-specific conflict. Two case studies, one with a binary endpoint and one with a continuous endpoint, illustrate that methods with broadly similar posterior treatment effect estimates may differ in both the overall amount and source-specific pattern of borrowing. These examples show that large overall borrowing may reflect selective borrowing from compatible historical sources rather than uniform borrowing from all sources. We recommend reporting treatment effect estimates together with overall and source-specific borrowing summaries, when available, to improve transparency in posterior inference.

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Tomohiro Ohigashi, Wataru Murasaki, Masahiko Gosho. 2026-05-26. Posterior Quantification of Borrowing from Multiple Historical Control Data in Bayesian Dynamic Borrowing Methods: A Scoping Review. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.27184

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