Robust Inference for Dyadic Data with Dependent Ordered Nodes

Abstract

Dyadic regression models are commonly analyzed under the conventional dyadic dependence framework, where two observations may be dependent only if the corresponding dyads share a node. This paper studies inference when nodes are ordered and nearby nodes are exposed to common latent shocks, so that dyads with no shared endpoint may still be dependent. Although each additional covariance term may be weak, the number of nearby-node dyad pairs grows with the sample size, making their aggregate contribution asymptotically non-negligible. We develop an inferential framework for dyadic arrays with ordered-node dependence and propose two variance estimators: a dependent-node dyadic cluster-robust variance estimator that retains covariance terms between dyads with nearby endpoints, and a row-column moving-block jackknife method that deletes adjacent blocks of nodes together with all dyads touching those nodes. We establish the asymptotic validity of both procedures under weak dependence along the ordered node index. Monte Carlo evidence shows improvements in size control, with the jackknife procedure displaying comparatively stable finite-sample performance. An application to international trade gravity regressions shows that accounting for ordered-node dependence substantially weakens the statistical evidence for free trade agreement effects.