The fused asset flow model: stability, bifurcation, and contagion in multi-asset markets with heterogeneous investors

Mario Cavani

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arXiv · 2605.28417

The fused asset flow model: stability, bifurcation, and contagion in multi-asset markets with heterogeneous investors

Mario Cavani

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Abstract

This paper presents a unified multi-asset, multi-group asset-flow model that integrates three foundational frameworks from the behavioral finance literature. The model captures the dynamics of financial markets where multiple assets are traded by multiple investor groups, each with distinct trend-following (momentum) and value-based (fundamental) strategies. Unlike classical efficient market models, our framework explicitly incorporates the finiteness of cash and shares, asymmetric cross-asset coupling in buying decisions, and endogenous wealth redistribution across groups. We derive the complete system of ordinary differential equations governing price, cash, share, and sentiment dynamics, and establish the fundamental properties of positivity and boundedness for all physically relevant variables. The equilibrium set is characterized as a manifold parameterized by cash distribution, with the fundamental equilibrium as a special point. Through linear stability analysis, we identify conditions under which the fundamental equilibrium loses stability via a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, giving rise to persistent limit cycles. The model is validated against three benchmark papers: the single-asset multi-group model of DeSantis, Swigon, and Caginalp (2012); the two-asset single-group model of Bulut, Merdan, and Swigon (2019); and the two-asset two-group Nigeria-Libya oil market model of Cavani (2026). Our numerical simulations reproduce all key theoretical predictions, including equilibrium manifolds, Hopf bifurcation thresholds, limit cycle periods, and asymmetric contagion patterns.

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Mario Cavani. 2026-05-27. The fused asset flow model: stability, bifurcation, and contagion in multi-asset markets with heterogeneous investors. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28417

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