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arXiv · 2606.00128

Exploring the periodicity of flight patterns

Sarah M. Coleman·H. Sherry Zhang·Lydia R. Lucchesi·Saptarshi Roy
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Abstract

Each year the American Statistical Association (ASA) hosts the Annual Data Challenge Expo, which tasks participants with analyzing a given dataset and presenting their work at the Joint Statistical Meeting (JSM). The 2025 Data Challenge Expo tasked participants with analyzing over 35 years of commercial flight data from the United States Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). These data provide extensive geographic coverage and operational details for the U.S. domestic aviation market. For millions of past flights, there is information about the flight's date, origin, destination, carrier, plane, departure, and arrival. In this article, we present our analysis for the 2025 JSM Data Challenge Expo. We chose to explore patterns in the daily scheduling of departures and arrivals across airlines, airports, and time. In doing so, we observed distinct scheduling ``waves'', or periodic structures at major airline hubs as well as large Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) hubs. In the remainder of this article, we detail the process of visualizing periodicity in flight scheduling as well as quantifying it through the calculation of Shannon entropy. An additional element to the 2025 Data Challenge Expo is the incorporation of a second dataset, to be decided by the participants. We detail the use of a BTS dataset with passenger enplanement (boarding) information to determine Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) hub classification (as opposed to airline-specific hubs). Furthermore, we discuss results from this visual and quantitative analysis, highlighting noticeable differences in the scheduling periodicity and entropy across airports, for the ``big four'' or four largest carriers, in U.S. aviation: American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines.

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Sarah M. Coleman, H. Sherry Zhang, Lydia R. Lucchesi, Saptarshi Roy. 2026-05-28. Exploring the periodicity of flight patterns. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.00128

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